NuggetKriging::logMargPostFun

Description

Compute the Log-Marginal Posterior Density of a NuggetKriging Model for a given Vector \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) of Correlation Ranges and a given Ratio \(\sigma^2 / (\sigma^2 + \tau^2)\) of Variances \(\texttt{GP} / (\texttt{GP}+ \texttt{nugget})\)

Usage

  • Python

    # k = Kriging(...)
    k.logMargPostFun(theta_alpha, grad = FALSE)
    
  • R

    # k = Kriging(...)
    k$logMargPostFun(theta_alpha, grad = FALSE)
    
  • Matlab/Octave

    % k = Kriging(...)
    k.logMargPostFun(theta_alpha, grad = FALSE)
    

Arguments

Argument

Description

theta_alpha

Numeric vector of correlation range and variance over nugget + variance parameters at which the function is to be evaluated.

grad

Logical. Should the function return the gradient (w.r.t theta_alpha)?

Details

The log-marginal posterior density relates to the jointly robust prior \(\pi_{\texttt{JR}}(\boldsymbol{\theta},\, \alpha,\,\sigma^2, \, \boldsymbol{\beta}) \propto \pi(\boldsymbol{\theta},\,\alpha) \, \sigma^{-2}\). The marginal (or integrated) posterior is the function \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) and \(\alpha\) obtained by marginalizing out the GP variance \(\sigma^2\) and the vector \(\boldsymbol{\beta}\) of trend coefficients. Due to the form of the prior, the marginalization can be done on the likelihood \(p_{\texttt{marg}}(\boldsymbol{\theta},\,\alpha \,\vert \,\mathbf{y}) \propto \pi(\boldsymbol{\theta},\,\alpha) \times L_{\texttt{marg}}(\boldsymbol{\theta},\,\alpha;\,\mathbf{y})\).

Value

The value of the log-marginal posterior density \(\log p_{\texttt{marg}}(\boldsymbol{\theta},\,\alpha \,|\, \mathbf{y})\) where \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) is the vector of correlation ranges and \(\alpha = \sigma^2 / (\sigma^2 + \tau^2)\) is the ratio of variances \(\texttt{GP}/ (\texttt{GP} + \texttt{nugget})\). By maximizing this function we should get the estimates of \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) and \(\alpha\) obtained when using objective = "LMP" in the fit.NuggetKriging method.

Examples

f <- function(x) 1 - 1 / 2 * (sin(12 * x) / (1 + x) + 2 * cos(7 * x) * x^5 + 0.7)
set.seed(123)
X <- as.matrix(runif(10))
y <- f(X) + 0.1 * rnorm(nrow(X))

k <- NuggetKriging(y, X, "matern3_2", objective="LMP")
print(k)

# theta0 = k$theta()
# lmp_alpha <- function(alpha) k$logMargPostFun(cbind(theta0,alpha))$logMargPost
# a <- seq(from = 0.9, to = 1.0, length.out = 101)
# plot(a, Vectorize(lmp_alpha)(a), type = "l",xlim=c(0.9,1))
# abline(v = k$sigma2()/(k$sigma2()+k$nugget()), col = "blue")
# 
# alpha0 = k$sigma2()/(k$sigma2()+k$nugget())
# lmp_theta <- function(theta) k$logMargPostFun(cbind(theta,alpha0))$logMargPost
# t <- seq(from = 0.001, to = 2, length.out = 101)
# plot(t, Vectorize(lmp_theta)(t), type = 'l')
# abline(v = k$theta(), col = "blue")

lmp <- function(theta_alpha) k$logMargPostFun(theta_alpha)$logMargPost
t <- seq(from = 0.4, to = 0.6, length.out = 51)
a <- seq(from = 0.9, to = 1, length.out = 51)
contour(t,a,matrix(ncol=length(t),lmp(expand.grid(t,a))),nlevels=50,xlab="theta",ylab="sigma2/(sigma2+nugget)")
points(k$theta(),k$sigma2()/(k$sigma2()+k$nugget()),col='blue')

Results

* data: 10x[0.0455565,0.940467] -> 10x[0.149491,0.940566]
* trend constant (est.): 0.389559
* variance (est.): 0.192207
* covariance:
  * kernel: matern3_2
  * range (est.): 0.434061
  * nugget (est.): 0.00330572
  * fit:
    * objective: LMP
    * optim: BFGS